大阪大学 社会経済研究所
Institute of Social Economic Research
講師
Tserenkhuu Tselmuun
ツェレンフー ツェルムーン
2023年2月 Ph.D.(経済学)(ゲルフ大学 (カナダ))
2017年10月 M.A.(経済学)(ウィンザー大学 (カナダ))
2014年3月 神戸大学経済学部卒
[専門分野]
マクロ経済学、経済成長、経済発展、景気循環、人口経済学
近年の研究テーマ
In my recent scholarly works, I investigate the consequences of changing demographics for the economy both in the short and long run. On the theoretical side, by developing an open economy neoclassical growth model with human capital accumulation, borrowing constraints, and finite lifetimes, we quantify the contribution of life expectancy to the long-run economic performance of a typical small open economy. In the model, a reduction in mortality affects aggregate human capital and thus output through two channels. First, a lower mortality rate raises an individual’s propensity to save out of wealth and in turn raises savings at the aggregate level. Second, it reduces aggregate human capital depreciation through the generation turnover effect. Our quantitative results suggest that life expectancy has a substantial impact on the steady state values of the key macroeconomic variables and that both channels are quantitatively important. Given the foregoing results, in a separate work, by introducing endogenous labor-leisure decisions by households and random shocks that affect both domestic productivity and the world’s real interest rate to the discrete-time version of the framework, we set out to explore the potential impact of life expectancy on short-run economic fluctuations.
On the empirical side, using panel data of 71 countries for the period 1991-2015, I examine how population aging affects the marginal effects of the factors that determine growth. Sub-sample comparisons between the OECD member countries and low and lower-middle income countries are also performed. The analysis is based on a fixed effects panel data varying coefficient model, which assumes that aging affects growth through the slope coefficients on the other explanatory variables. Thus, by construction, the model allows for multiple channels through which aging can influence growth. The results provide evidence that population aging may influence growth indirectly through different factor accumulation variables and the effects may differ between the OECD countries and low and lower-middle income countries.
In my recent scholarly works, I investigate the consequences of changing demographics for the economy both in the short and long run. On the theoretical side, by developing an open economy neoclassical growth model with human capital accumulation, borrowing constraints, and finite lifetimes, we quantify the contribution of life expectancy to the long-run economic performance of a typical small open economy. In the model, a reduction in mortality affects aggregate human capital and thus output through two channels. First, a lower mortality rate raises an individual’s propensity to save out of wealth and in turn raises savings at the aggregate level. Second, it reduces aggregate human capital depreciation through the generation turnover effect. Our quantitative results suggest that life expectancy has a substantial impact on the steady state values of the key macroeconomic variables and that both channels are quantitatively important. Given the foregoing results, in a separate work, by introducing endogenous labor-leisure decisions by households and random shocks that affect both domestic productivity and the world’s real interest rate to the discrete-time version of the framework, we set out to explore the potential impact of life expectancy on short-run economic fluctuations.
On the empirical side, using panel data of 71 countries for the period 1991-2015, I examine how population aging affects the marginal effects of the factors that determine growth. Sub-sample comparisons between the OECD member countries and low and lower-middle income countries are also performed. The analysis is based on a fixed effects panel data varying coefficient model, which assumes that aging affects growth through the slope coefficients on the other explanatory variables. Thus, by construction, the model allows for multiple channels through which aging can influence growth. The results provide evidence that population aging may influence growth indirectly through different factor accumulation variables and the effects may differ between the OECD countries and low and lower-middle income countries.
主な論文
- Open economy neoclassical growth models and the role of life expectancy, (with Stephen Kosempel),The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 1057–1092, 2023.
- Population aging and economic growth: A semiparametric panel data analysis, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 342-354, 2023.